The Settlers of Catan, by designer Klaus Teuber, is one of the most successful board games of the last few decades, a game that brought many people back in playing board games, initiated many into the hobby and has millions of fans worldwide. In this perspective and while preparing for the national championship of Catan in my country, Greece, I thought it might be a good idea to compile a strategy guide for the game for beginners and experienced players alike. So, let's go!
Main Strategies
There are actually three main strategies you can follow, depending on the setup of the board. The first two usually work better and faster while the third will be your last resort, if the setup isn't favorable or if you don't have the opportyunity to get the initial positions you'd like at the start of the game. Actually your strategy will be very much dependent on your initial placement of settlements and vice versa.
Wood/brick strategy. Your goal is to build as many settlements as you can while also building and maintaining the longest road. To pursue this strategy you need strong positions for wood and brick production, as well as a little grain and a little wool. Build your first road as soon as possible and go for the best available third settlement position. Continue to expand your road, trying to connect your first two settlements which ideally should be far from each other. Continue building settlements, possibly at harbors too. Finally upgrade 1-2 settlements to cities and there you go! Grain/Ore strategy. Your goal is to upgrade your settlements fast and purchase many development cards in order to have the biggest army. In order to achieve your goal, you need strong initial positions for grain and ore, a little wool too. Before upgrading your settlements, try first to build a third settlement. That will assure your don't get blocked by a fast wood/brick opponent. As soon as you have three settlements try to upgrade all of them, while purchasing development cards. These cards will provide knights that will become your army while also removing the thief from your settlements/cities. Hopefully you will get some victory points too and finish the game abruptly surprising your opponents. Mixed strategy. If there aren't any good initial positions to go for one of the previous strategies or you lose them by playing 3rd or 4th, you can try to mix them by building your initial settlements in a way that you get a little of everything. This way you will be slower but more flexible to bad dice rolls. As soon as you see the scale weighing towards one of the two strategies, emphasize on that one.
Initial Placement
One of the most important decision you will have to make during the game is where to place your first two settlements. Take your time to study the board and don't rush things. This decision will affect your ability to produce materials in an efficient way and will determine your whole strategy. There are many factors to consider in order to choose the best available positions. The most important ones are the following:
Dice roll statistics. For the throw of a single die, all outcomes are equally probable. But in the throw of two dice, the different possibilities for the total of the two dice are not equally probable because there are more ways to get some numbers than others. For example, there are six ways to get a total of 7, but only one way to get 2. Number seven that moves the thief is the most common roll but of course there is no such hex on the board. Numbers six and eight are the next best thing. To help you decide, numbers with a higher probability are designated on the Catan island with larger font than those of lower probability. The best resource producing numbers are 6 and 8 and apart from being bigger than the other numbers their font is red. If you look closely, you can see a number of black dots below the numbers (not in all editions though). They also represent the probability of a number to be rolled. 6 and 8 have 5 dots because they can be rolled with 5 different ways. 5 and 9 have four dots, 4 and 10 three dots, 3 and 11 two dots and finally 2 and 12 have one dot being the less frequent rolls. Upon deciding for your first settlement position the most important factor is to count the dots on each position open on the board and find out which position will produce materials more efficiently. For your second placement this factor will become less important because that settlement will finalize your strategy and thus you will probably more specific needs. Resource types / Strategy. Having in mind the strategies mentioned above, you should always try first to pursue one clear strategy, either wood/brick or grain/ore. A position with 12 dots which produces a wood, brick and wool with highest numbers on wood/brick is better than one with 13 dots producing wood, wool and ore because the latter doesn't serve any particular strategy. Your first settlement is the most important one, so choose it so that resources match your strategy if you can. Variability of resources. You could try to build a settlement on a 13 dot wood/wood/wood position, planning to build your second settlement on a wood harbor but I warn you: that is most probably not going to work. Ideally you could build your first two settlements so that you can produce all five resources, although you will actually want that only if you are going for the mixed strategy. In general you will want to emphasize production on a combination of either wood/brick or grain/ore with supplements from the other resources. If you narrow your production too much, and focus on 2-3 resources you will have to trade two of them in a harbor (trading with other players is never guaranteed) to get a new resource this way decreasing the total number of available resources you have and slowing you down. Producing at least four different resources seems crucial because it guaranties flexibility in building and trading. Variability of numbers. Although building in two different locations, each adjacent to a number 6 tile, let's say one producing wood and the other one producing brick, initially seems a good idea, you may find that at times you will be either flooded with resources when 6 comes up or with nothing at hand when it doesn't. Having a streamline production of resources by occupying spaces with variation in numbers seems the way to go as it helps mitigate the factor of bad luck that always plays a role in dice-rolling games. Having one common number in your first two settlements is acceptable but try not to have more. Harbors. It's not wise to build one of your first two settlements in a harbor as you will have at least one less resource producing hex at your desposal. It's definitely not advisable to build on a harbor adjacent to a single hex. However if there is no better location building on a harbor would be acceptable in an occasion in which the harbor is adjacent to two high producing hexes and it enables you to trade in a resource which will be abundant. The location of harbors in general should be taken into account during your second settlement placement. Having the ability to do 3:1 trades or even 2:1 for a resource you will have plenty of shouldn't be underestimated as it could give you a significant boost in late game. Try to always have at least one settlement near the coast and if you have to choose between two equal locations go for the one closer to a 2:1 harbor of a resource you will have plenty of. Space for expansion. Try to position your settlements far from one another especially if on a wood/brick strategy. That will prevent opponents from blocking your way around, give you more flexibility in expanding and will enable you to ultimately connect your two settlements when going for the longest road. Direction of initial roads. That is a tricky one, especially if you are playing first or second. The board will, in that case, be empty or almost empty and you will have to decide where to direct your first two roads. Try to think which are the best positions around the one you just built. Consider that these will probably be taken up from other players and direct your road to a less favorable but still promising location. If you are on a wood/brick strategy, you can risk directing your roads towards interesting locations towards the center of the map, having in mind the possibility of connecting your first two settlements. The center of the map is always a bit risky though, as there is a good chance that you get trapped in there and not able to expand your road enough to build the longest road. In general go for the center if you have a lot of wood and brick and feel confident that you'll get there before your opponents. If you are on grain/strategy it's better to expand outwards as you will probably not be fast enough to build at a location near the center of the map. If a convenient harbor is near, go for it.
Thoughts on gameplayFirst few moves:
Together with initial placement of settlements, your first few moves will be very crucial. When on wood/brick strategy try to expand quickly, building new roads and settlements, thus blocking your opponents and strengthening your position on the board. If on gran/ore strategy try to grab the best free position near one of your setlements before starting upgrading.
Expanding:
Try to expand as soon as you can and occupy spaces with numbers you don't already have. This way you can ensure a steady flow of resources no matter what the dice roll is. Even if you are on a grain/ore strategy expanding is the first thing you must do before upgrading settlements to cities. Grab one more settlement (so you have 3) and then you can forget all about it and focus on upgrading.
Longest road:
If you are on a wood/brick strategy, it's crucial for you to build the longest road in order to win. Expand, always have that in mind. Choose a path which is less likely to be blocked by opponents and try to connect your initial settlements soon enough before the path is blocked.
Pay attention to your opponents' moves:
While you are focused on executing your highly polished strategy, don't forget that your opponents are doing the same. Especially when you have accomplished the goal of having the longest road, watch your opponents' moves closely. They are almost sure to try to get it away from you with sneaky moves:) Try to block their path before they can be dangerous even if it slows down your plans.
Play aggressively:
The best defence is offence! When going for the longest road, always try to block early any opponents that you see as potential competitors for the prize. Don't forget that you can also break an opponent's road by building a settlement along it. You can also try to trap grain/ore opponents, denying them a third settlement and thus slowing them down considerably.
Trading:
Always try to take part in trades. Remember that each time your opponents are trading between them, they are strengthening their position and you get nothing. Don't be easy on your trades but don't be too demanding either. Trading in your turn is better than trading on others' turns because you can immediately use the resources and do some meaningful stuff. If you trade on an opponent's turn, you may lose what you got by the time it's your turn to play due to a knight, the thief (if holding too many resources) or even a Monopoly card.
Monopoly development card:
Stealing all resources of one kind from all players is a very powerful weapon and you should use it carefully. Before playing it, you must consider two things: First, what resource do I need? (Well, that's the easy part!). Secondly, do other players have that resource and actually do they have plenty of it? Supposedly, you need brick. If you play Monopoly and get two bricks, that was pretty lame. If you don't exactly remember what kind of resources your opponent have, wait a turn or two and see what they get. If they get a lot of it, don't use it and it is what you need, go play Monopoly in your next turn.
Thief
Some thoughts about the correct way of playing the thief:
Try to always attack the stronger opponent. You will decrease his resource cards and you will slow him down, enabling you (and unfortunately other players too) to catch up on victory points. If you are looking for a specific resource, steal from the opponent who is more likely to have it. You can try to get a hint about that by first asking to trade for the resource you need and see the reaction of other players. If someone has it but don't want to give it up they'll probably tell. That is a bit nasty but one has got to do what he's got to do! Place the thief on the best producing tile of the opponent you are stealing from. It will hurt him more. Also try to go for hexes that hurt multiple opponents.
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